Roll out the midseason-ish awards red carpet. Just to keep things simple, these awards are based on what happened over the course of 8 weeks. These are not predictions of how the year-end awards race will turn out.
Offensive Player of the Year
Candidate: Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles. Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings. Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals. Derrick Henry of the Baltimore Ravens.
Did even the Ravens think Henry's addition would go so smoothly? He has a back that doesn't show his age and is on track to break 2,000 by the age of 30. After a shaky opening week against the Chiefs, Henry ran through every defense he faced. He leads the league in rushing yards, yards from scrimmage and touchdowns, and is firmly in the running for longest season record. The only player with a more explosive rush than Henry this season is… Lamar Jackson.
Typically, when a team adds a veteran running back, it's the kind of move that can bring in a few inches of column in the offseason but not move the championship needle. However, Henry helped the Ravens rethink their offense around Jackson, making the team more viable for a deep run in the postseason.
Jackson remains an important Jenga block. Even without Henry, the Ravens were still able to put together a great offense. Without Jackson, they would be in trouble. But combining the two took Baltimore's offense to a new level. They have the most distinctive and effective running game in the league. Teams used to common ground attacks look shocked when faced with the tandem of Jackson and Henry.
Somehow, the combination of the NFL's best downhill runner and league MVP is better in practice than it is on paper.
Winner: Henry
TJ Watt is near unblockable at his best. Photo: Brent Gudenschwager/ZUMA Press Wire/REX/Shutterstock
Defensive Player of the Year
Candidate: TJ Watt, Pittsburgh Steelers. Brian Branch, Detroit Lions. Will Anderson, Houston Texans. Dexter Lawrence, New York Giants. Chris Jones, Kansas City Chiefs. Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit Lions. Nick Bosa, San Francisco 49ers.
This season has a dizzying array of candidates. Hutchinson walked away dancing with his award before a leg injury ended his season. With Hutchinson sidelined, it's tempting to hand the award to Brian Branch, Detroit's safety, slot corner and part-time linebacker. Branch is the secret to the Lions' defensive success, a multi-position star who plays with a two-step vision that no one can teach you.
But Blanche is a hip talent. The logical choice is TJ Watt. The Steelers' edge rusher continues to control the game on his own. He is up to 6.5 sacks this season, has four fumbles and has recovered two. Against the run, he was completely unblockable, recording 14 run stops. No player has a sack total near double digits.
What's remarkable about Watt isn't that he wins, but how he wins. Anderson, Hutchinson, and Myles Garrett have multiple ways to break up the backfield and shake up the quarterback. They stack moves on top of moves. Hutchinson aside, a fantastically good shuffle across the league's defensive lineups. Not watts. Don't attack from strange angles. He doesn't have any deep tricks. He can't get any help with the schematics. He lined up in one spot as a left defensive end and broke through.
That's not an exaggeration. Watt has one trick: the dip and rip, the speed rush. He exploded off the line, arcing around the opposing right tackle and getting closer to the quarterback. that's it.
Watt tried many different things for most of his career. But now he values efficiency at the expense of unpredictability. The idea is not to win every rep, but when he does, it's fast and clean, giving him a chance to attack the ball and force a fumble instead of just applying pressure and dropping the quarterback. That's it. His historic forced fumble numbers were not a coincidence, they were intentional. Watt chose to go after a game-changing play rather than ramp up the pressure.
Watt's metrics this season won't surprise you. He had 28 total pressures, which ranked him 28th in the league and second on his team behind Cameron Heyward. He ranks 37th in the league in pass rush win percentage (how often he beats a blocker), behind only his two teammates, Heyward and rotational rusher Nick Herbig. But there's plenty of context. No pass rusher attracts double teams, gets chipped as often, or is game-planned as much as Watt.
He may not meet all the traditional criteria, but no defender is more valuable to the team than Watt.
Winner: Watt
Jaden Daniels is having one of the best rookie seasons in years. Photo: Nick Wass/AP
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Candidate: Jayden Daniels, Washington Commander. Malik Nabers, New York Giants. Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders. Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars.
With stacked classes, this isn't particularly close. Jaden Daniels is circling the field. Daniels proved every bit as comfortable breaking out for explosive runs as he was slicing through defenses from the pocket, being a dual-threat in college. Eight weeks into his career, he's playing with the confidence of a five-year veteran.
Daniels leads the league in the RBSDM Quarterback Overall Grade, which measures the value of a play and how responsible a quarterback is deemed to be for that value. The data goes back to 2010. During that time, no rookie or first-year starter (not even Patrick Mahomes!) has led the field through the first eight weeks of the season.
Who deserves this more than Washington fans? Much like Andy Dufresne, they escaped through the drain of Dan Snyder's property and emerged with a rookie quarterback playing at an MVP level. Next up is Zihuatanejo, or a playoff win.
Winner: Daniels
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Defensive Rookie of the Year
Candidate: Jared Barth, LA Rams. Evan Williams, Green Bay Packers. Laiatu Latu, Indianapolis Colts. Kunyon Mitchell, Philadelphia Eagles. TyVon Dollar Sweat of the Tennessee Titans.
The Rams could never replace the Hall of Fame impact of Aaron Donald. But they went into last offseason hoping to replicate Donald's production overall, drafting two rookies in hopes of one day being able to headline a group that would stop feeling like Donald. did.
Midway through the season, they got more than they expected. Jared Verse, the 19th overall pick, is already a legitimate star. He has only 2.5 sacks in seven games, but spends most of those games camped out in opposing backfields. Verse has 32 total pressures this season, good for ninth in the league, but only Hutchinson has a better pressure rate per snap.
Again, Verse is a rookie! Rookie edge rusher should be flashy. Sometimes bag production is inflated, but the numbers inside aren't up to scrutiny. Poetry is the opposite. He's an all-down wrecking ball, but he still hasn't been able to close the distance. Ultimately, the sack totals will increase. But for the first eight weeks of his career, he was playing at a Pro Bowl level.
Winner: Verse.
Kevin O'Connell helped revive Sam Darnold's career. Photo: Jeffrey Becker/USA Today Sports
coach of the year
Candidate: Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers. Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions. Dan Quinn, Washington Commander. Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers. Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs, Kevin O'Connell, Minnesota Vikings.
Choosing Coach of the Year is difficult at the best of times. Please try your best to solve it this year. You can name the three coaches who will rise to the top of the NFC North and root for the one who hits the ground first. Campbell turned the Lions into a certified powerhouse. Then there's Tomlin. He led the Steelers to first place in the AFC North despite changing quarterbacks. And then there's Reed. He started the two-time defending champions undefeated, even if the atmosphere felt a little off at times.
From a pure coaching standpoint, LaFleur building a successful offense around Malik Willis in the absence of Jordan Love is as strong a case as any coach could put together. It's also hard to overlook Quinn, who set the ecosystem in place for Daniels to shine and had his coaches contend for a district title in what was expected to be a rebuilding year.
But O'Connell brings together both of these ideas. As the originator of the Vikings' offense, he helped rejuvenate Sam Darnold's career and built a unit that ranked in the top 10 in points per game around a journeyman quarterback. O'Connell also deserves credit for ending Minnesota's chaotic and destructive defense. Brian Flores is the architect of the Vikings' inscrutable, erratic and entertaining unit, but O'Connell hired Flores with an approach that would have horrified many other head coaches.
Winner: O'Connell
best player
Candidate: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commander. CJ Stroud, Houston Texans.
This is tough. Goff has shattered the preconceptions that he was just part of Detroit's system and is having the best time of his career. Stroud kept the Texans offense afloat despite being exposed to more offense than any quarterback in the league.
But there are two standout candidates: Allen and Jackson.
Jackson, the reigning MVP, remains the cornerstone of the Ravens offense. He runs a more prolific offense than Allen. But the Bills quarterback is putting together his best season in a slightly more difficult career than Jackson.
In his seventh season, Allen has polished off some of the rough edges of his game. This season, he has thrown 14 touchdowns and only one interception, cutting down on the mind-boggling turnovers that have been going on for years. Part of the reason is that he gets the ball away faster than at any point in his career, and he Most efficient passer in the league. And that hasn't stifled his trademark aggressiveness or playmaking instincts, with Allen still leading the league in big-time throw rate, according to Pro Football Focus.
At this stage of his career, the Bills have their way with Allen, too. And he put the team in position to win a fifth straight AFC East title. He slightly outperformed Jackson.
Winner: Allen
