The 2024 NBA Draft was widely perceived as a weak one. Summer League did little to change that perception, and it's no surprise, to say the least, that preseason expectations for even the most promising rookies were muted.
Last week, no rookies were ranked on CBS Sports' annual rankings of the NBA's top 100 players, and at the same time, there are doubts about whether any rookies will be in the starting lineup for the season opener in a few weeks.
Still, history has shown us that virtually every draft class eventually reveals an All-Star candidate. Who could that be in the 2024 group? Here are the five rookies we're most optimistic about right now heading into the 2024-25 season.
Shepard has been a mixed bag, especially for those of us who followed him in high school. If you just watched him at Kentucky last year, his incredible shooting numbers and defensive metrics will get you super hyped. Add in some promising on-ball work in Summer League and the No. 3 overall pick could very well be the best player in this draft.
Shepard shot 52% from three-point range at Kentucky last year, not only the best mark in college basketball, but also a very surprising mark given his high school performance. In his final two years on the Adidas 3SSB circuit, he shot just 31% from three-point range combined, and in the seven games filmed by Synergy Sports during his senior year at North Laurel High School, he shot a comparable 34%. If the improved shooting percentage he showed at Kentucky proves to be even remotely sustainable at the NBA level (because 50%+ is probably unrealistic), it will be a significant first domino in his offense. This will force opposing defenders to lift him higher up the court, miss in an arc when he makes the catch, and not be able to get under ball screens anywhere within his shooting range. In other words, it literally makes every other part of his offense easier.
What carried over from high school to college was his defensive playmaking. His hand-eye coordination is so good, and his playmaking metrics so high, he almost ignores the reality that his foot speed isn't ideal. How that overall defensive influence carries over under defensive-minded coach Ime Udoka will be a big key to how much time he sees this season.
Houston is a team looking to win the Western Conference or at least take another step forward. The Rockets return starting backcourt Jalen Green and Fred VanVleet. Green played the best of his short NBA career late last season, but that was when Alperen Sengun was out. The Rockets were without a consistent backup point guard behind VanVleet last year, so Shepard will need to fill that role at the very least and at the very most complete a potentially strong three-guard rotation that will need to be balanced with young, talented wings like Jabari Smith, Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore, all of whom need time to develop next season.
Eddie, the ninth overall pick, was the most controversial prospect in the draft. He dominated the college basketball world the past two seasons at Purdue, but was not thought to be a good fit for the NBA. The Grizzlies selecting him in the top 10 was the biggest surprise of draft night, even if it was after he was rejected by multiple teams trying to trade up to acquire Donovan Clingan. Memphis pursued Clingan because they didn't have a starting center. With Eddie in that position, he may have a better chance of becoming a full-time starter than any other rookie this season. That opportunity made Eddie the favorite for Rookie of the Year, something that seemed unlikely even just six months ago.
However, his role will be very different from his college days. Whereas Purdue built its offense around slamming the ball inside and space from the post, the Grizzlies will be a pick-and-roll based system with Ja Morant, one of the most dynamic creators in the league. At 7’4”, Eddie is not only big, he’s also an exceptional screener. How much he can improve on playing short rolls and potentially stretching the floor will ultimately determine his offensive ceiling. He’s also continuing to make progress in conditioning, which showed steady improvement during his college days. But the biggest question is defensively, where he is expected to be a full-on drop-cover pick-and-roll defender and will need to prove he can keep the ball-handler in front of him while preventing more mobile rollers from getting behind him.
If there's any year the team doesn't want to hit the lottery, it's 2024. Not just because there were no clear up-and-coming stars at the top of the draft, but because landing the top pick comes with expectations from both fans and owners. Lisacher is not a typical No. 1 overall pick. He's more of a 3&D style role player than the type of creator or high-potential prospect that usually gets picked No. 1. Additionally, he had some pretty major ups and downs last season in France. In reality, he might not even have been the No. 1 pick if Alex Sarr hadn't forced him into Atlanta. So it's clear that Lisacher shouldn't be evaluated by the same standards that usually come with this pick.
Still, if he proves reliable in shooting and defense, he may have a chance. Atlanta is clearly Trae Young's team, and with a lack of chemistry with Young and Dejounte Murray leaving for New Orleans, most of the time on both wings will likely be split between Bogdan Bogdanovic, De'Andre Hunter, Dyson Daniels and Lisacher. It's not impossible that Atlanta could one day screw up this plan, move Young and start a rebuild around young players like Lisacher, Daniels and Jalen Johnson. This is a proposition that would certainly increase Lisacher's role and projected statistical production.
When the draft lottery was decided, Sarr was the player most people expected to be the No. 1 pick. But when Atlanta ended up with the No. 1 pick, Sarr and his agent pretty much decided he was going to Washington. The reasons were abundantly clear. The Wizards are rebuilding and not currently striving to win, which should theoretically give Sarr more time and opportunities to be on the court next season. But the decision to sign Jonas Valanciunas to a three-year, $30 million contract is a bit at odds with this thinking, since the 32-year-old has been the primary starter in the league for over a decade. Of course, the Wizards also bring back Kyle Kuzma, arguably the team's best player and a likely No. 4 starter.
So where does that leave Sarr? Some argue this is the ideal scenario for his development. Currently, Sarr may be too weak to play at the 5 against NBA starters, but his lack of reliable offensive power has limited his play as a power forward. Playing behind Valanciunas against an opposing second-unit center would be his best chance to compete at the position, utilize his offensive quickness, and further develop the defensive talent that scouts had the most hope for going into the draft. So for now, he seems likely to develop on the bench until he's ready to take on a more prominent role alongside younger players like Bilal Coulibaly and Bub Carrington.
Chance may be the most important factor for early success for an NBA rookie, which is why Castle gets the last spot on this list. The Spurs have a generational talent in Victor Wembanyama, who lived up to his hype last season, but the rest of the roster isn't ready to compete in the playoffs yet. The most glaring omission was at the point guard position, where Jeremy Sochan moved from his usual position as the No. 4 and actually started playing at the position at the start of the 2023-24 season.
This year, they drafted Castle, who played exclusively as a wing at UConn last year, and signed future Hall of Famer Chris Paul to mentor the rookies. Tre Jones is also back and in the final year of his contract. In short, Castle will likely get a chance to prove he can be a big lead guard for the Spurs this season. Even if his off-the-ball stats are at their best, his perimeter size, strength, build and defensive ability are expected to make him a long-term asset for the team. If he can really get his shot working, which has been his Achilles heel, he could be much more accomplished.
Honorable Mentions: Dalton Knecht (Lakers), Donovan Clingan (Portland Trail Blazers), Matas Buzelis (Chicago Bulls), Dalton Knecht (Los Angeles Lakers)
