We're a quarter of the way through the college football season, and there's been no shortage of drama. Of the 12 teams my model predicted would make the College Football Playoff during the preseason, three are no longer in the running, and three teams that were on the brink of making the playoffs have been eliminated — all in the space of just four weeks.
When I wrote my stock report after Week 2, the teams on the rise were Miami, Tennessee, and USC. Currently, Miami is projected as the team to beat in the ACC as a #3 seed (72% chance of making the playoff, 40% chance of winning the ACC). Tennessee is coming off a road win at Oklahoma and sits as a #10 seed with a 73% chance of making the playoffs. And despite a road loss to Michigan, USC still holds onto its spot in the projected bracket as an #11 seed with a 45% chance of making the playoffs. Miami and Tennessee have both moved up in their projected seeds since two weeks ago (up one each), while USC has dropped one.
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Meanwhile, the three teams I've written about that are trending down are Oregon, Notre Dame and Michigan. Oregon is projected to make the playoff as a No. 6 seed, and while the team's overall rating hasn't improved in my rankings, its chances of making the playoffs have risen to 87 percent. Notre Dame has moved up on the bubble since a tough home loss to Northern Illinois two weeks ago, but the Irish's chances of making the playoffs have risen just five percentage points to 37 percent.
What about Michigan? Sure, the Wolverines are fresh off a season-saving win over USC, but I'm still not sold on them, and neither is my model.
Stock up
Pennsylvania State University
The Nittany Lions' chances of making the playoffs have increased by eight percentage points over the past two weeks to 80 percent, the sixth-highest in the country. More importantly, their overall team strength has increased by 2.5 points (compared to the FBS team average). The defense has taken some hits, but it should still be in the top 20. The big improvement has been on offense. According to TruMedia, Penn State ranks seventh in expected points added per offensive play (EPA), 13th in offensive success rate, and third in explosive play rate. Of course, the Kent State game may have boosted those numbers a bit, but Penn State dominated the West Virginia defense on the road and beat a solid Bowling Green team that gave Texas A&M a hard time in College Station.
Another thing that works in Penn State's favor is its schedule. Penn State is projected to be favored in all but one of its remaining games this year, and even in its one home game against Ohio State, my model gives the Nittany Lions a 48 percent chance of winning. An away game against USC will also be a tough challenge, but other than that, trips to Wisconsin and Minnesota don't look as daunting as they were at the start of the season.
In my model, Penn State should win 10 or more games and make the playoff in 72 percent of simulations.
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Drew Aller ranked second in FBS passing efficiency rating. (Matthew O'Hallen/IMAG Images)
Boise State University
Boise State came within a couple of chances of beating Oregon in Eugene, but despite the early setbacks, the Broncos' chances of making the playoffs have risen by 13 percentage points since two weeks ago to 36 percent. Now, I have to say that the Group 5 projections might be a little uncertain because we don't know how the committee views each conference. But the Broncos have an advantage: Memphis (Navy) and Texas State (Arizona) have lost in the past two weeks, and either loss is better than losing to Oregon on the road. A win this week against Washington State, where they're favored by a touchdown, would be a big boost to Boise State's resume.
Boise State has the best running back in college football in Ashton Jeanty, who may be the first running back selected in next year's NFL draft. He ranks first in the nation in EPA per rush and third in percentage of rushes over 20 yards. Even if the defense boxes you out, Jeanty can overpower you. If the Heisman Trophy were awarded to a player outside of the Power 4, Jeanty would be the front-runner. And he's the main reason Boise State has the best playoff odds in the Group of 5.
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Stock prices fall
Michigan
Sure, Michigan just beat USC, but they only threw 32 yards passing, a big run and six interceptions. It's going to be hard to keep up that pace against a powerhouse. Of course, the move to Alex Orji at quarterback is best for the team, but at the end of the day, the Wolverines just look like a more athletic and talented version of the Iowa teams we've had in recent years. Can they win eight or nine games? Yes. But can they make the playoffs? It seems unlikely.
Michigan has a home game against Oregon and a trip to Ohio State coming up, along with trips to Washington, Illinois and Indiana. My model gave Michigan just a 2% chance of making the playoff last week, but the USC win raised that number to 5%. Such a small increase speaks to long-term concerns.
With Orji, the Wolverines' run game could be more explosive than it has been in the first three weeks. Karel Mullings looks to be the Wolverines' best running back, and they leaned on him late in the game against USC. Also, running the ball efficiently while protecting it with good defense has been a winning strategy in the Big Ten over the past few years, but I'm not sure if that's the recipe for being a playoff team. With losses already decided and tough games still to come, I can see Michigan winning by double digits.
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LSU
I expected some setbacks offensively, as LSU lost Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels and two first-round wide receivers, but I also expected improvements defensively. Right now, LSU's defense is not good enough. They are 83rd in EPA per play, 74th in defensive success rate, and 82nd in first-down yards per play. They also have a tough schedule with USC and South Carolina, and upcoming SEC matchups with Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma are not easy. The front seven has been thin since the start of the year, with star linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. just missing a season-ending injury.
Two weeks ago, I projected LSU to make the playoffs at a 24% probability, but that number has dropped to just 12% heading into Week 5. After narrowly escaping South Carolina and being tied at halftime with a weak UCLA team at home, my model doesn't have much confidence in LSU. Can the offense carry the Tigers for a few games? Of course it can. I am bullish on the offense for the rest of the season behind Garrett Nussmeyer. Unfortunately, LSU hasn't made the defensive strides necessary to be a playoff contender.
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(Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
